Air Transport Recession Results in 3 Years of Lost MRO Market Growth

The impact of the current recession is highlighted in findings from OAG and AeroStrategy’s recent update of its benchmark Commercial Aircraft MRO (maintenance, repair & overhaul) Market Forecast.

Specifically:

The estimated MRO market for 2009 will be $41B, 7% below the 2007 peak

• From 2003-2008, the MRO market grew at a rate of about 6% per annum
• In contrast, the growth rate (in constant $) for the next ten years will be just 2.3% per annum
• Airframe heavy maintenance market will show the lowest growth rate (just 1% per annum) as older, manhour-intensive airframes get retired and replaced
• MRO spend will recover to reach 2007/2008 levels in 2011
• The net impact of the current recession and associated fleet contraction will result in three years of lost MRO growth.

Military Aircraft Sustainment – A Safe Harbor in The Economic Storm
The most recent analysis of the military aircraft MRO market by OAG and AeroStrategy suggests that this market will be resilient through the current economic recession:

The estimated military aircraft MRO market in 2009 is $61.1B, less than 1% higher than the 2008 value

• The market is set to grow to $67.5B by 2018 with a potential dip in the 2011 / 2012 timeframe as US Reset spending declines as a result of withdrawal from Iraq
• Key growth platforms will be the Lockheed Martin F-35, the Bell/Boeing V-22, the NHI NH-90, the Eurocopter Tiger and the Boeing P-8.
• Key declining platforms will include the Northrop F-5, the Dassault Mirage, the BAE AV-8B, the Boeing CH-46 and the Grumman EA-6B.
• AeroStrategy is currently undertaking a comprehensive study of the approach to military aircraft sustainment (MRO, engineering support, supply chain management and pilot & mechanic training) for 61 countries around the world

The underlying MRO Forecast and the associated data can be purchased via OAG at www.OAGaviation.com. Speeches summarizing AeroStrategy’s perspectives on the MRO market can be downloaded at www.aerostrategy.com.

OAG provides essential aviation workflow data and analytics sourced from its comprehensive proprietary airline schedules, fleet and MRO databases. OAG is a leading brand of UBM Aviation, a global data and information business for the air transport industry.

AeroStrategy is a premier management consulting firm specializing in strategy and market analysis for the aviation and aerospace industries. The firm has offices in Europe, Asia and North America.

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Media Enquiries:

Please contact:

Alison Pickering, Corporate Communications, UBM Aviation

alison.pickering@ubmaviation.com +44 (0)1582 695477

Jennifer Zapp, Research Associate, AeroStrategy

jzapp@aerostrategy.com +1 734-213-1579